Effect of active vitamin D treatment on development of type 2 diabetes: DPVD randomised controlled trial in Japanese population.

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether eldecalcitol, an active vitamin D analogue2, can reduce the development of type 2 diabetes among adults with impaired glucose tolerance. DESIGN: Double blinded, multicentre, randomised, placebo controlled trial. SETTING: Three hospitals in Japan, between June 2013 and August 2019. PARTICIPANTS: People aged 30 years and older who had impaired glucose tolerance defined by using a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test and glycated haemoglobin level. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised to receive active vitamin D (eldecalcitol 0.75 µg per day; n=630) or matching placebo (n=626) for three years. MAIN OUTCOMES: The primary endpoint was incidence of diabetes. Prespecified secondary endpoints were regression to normoglycaemia and incidence of type 2 diabetes after adjustment for confounding factors at baseline. In addition, bone densities and bone and glucose metabolism markers were assessed. RESULTS: Of the 1256 participants, 571 (45.5%) were women and 742 (59.1%) had a family history of type 2 diabetes. The mean age of participants was 61.3 years. The mean serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration at baseline was 20.9 ng/mL (52.2 nmol/L); 548 (43.6%) participants had concentrations below 20 ng/mL (50 nmol/L). During a median follow-up of 2.9 years, 79 (12.5%) of 630 participants in the eldecalcitol group and 89 (14.2%) of 626 in the placebo group developed type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.17; P=0.39). Regression to normoglycaemia was achieved in 145 (23.0%) of 630 participants in the eldecalcitol group and 126 (20.1%) of 626 in the placebo group (hazard ratio 1.15, 0.93 to 1.41; P=0.21). After adjustment for confounding factors by multivariable fractional polynomial Cox regression analysis, eldecalcitol significantly lowered the development of diabetes (hazard ratio 0.69, 0.51 to 0.95; P=0.020). In addition, eldecalcitol showed its beneficial effect among the participants with the lower level of basal insulin secretion (hazard ratio 0.41, 0.23 to 0.71; P=0.001). During follow-up, bone mineral densities of the lumbar spine and femoral neck and serum osteocalcin concentrations significantly increased with eldecalcitol compared with placebo (all P<0.001). No significant difference in serious adverse events was observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although treatment with eldecalcitol did not significantly reduce the incidence of diabetes among people with pre-diabetes, the results suggested the potential for a beneficial effect of eldecalcitol on people with insufficient insulin secretion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: UMIN Clinical Trials Registry UMIN000010758.

Increasing trend of asymptomatic hyperuricemia under treatment with urate-lowering drugs in Japan.

Objectives: To describe recent trends in the prevalence of gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia regarding urate-lowering treatment (ULT) in Japan. Methods: A database of health insurance claims managed by the Japan Medical Data Center was used to estimate the annual prevalence of gout and asymptomatic hyperuricemia during 2010-2014. ULT was evaluated for status of the two diseases during the same period. The significance of time trends was evaluated by Cochrane-Armitage trend test. Results: The prevalence of physician-diagnosed gout in men aged 20-64 years was 1.54% (95% CI: 1.49%-1.58%) in 2010, with a slight but significant (p < 0.001) annual increase, up to 1.66% (95% CI: 1.62%-1.71%) in 2014. In women, gout prevalence was somewhat constant about 0.09% during 2010-2014. Among male patients with gout, 78% received ULT. The prevalence of male patients with asymptomatic hyperuricemia in the same age range, who received ULT, increased significantly from 1.77% (95% CI: 1.72%-1.81%) to 2.14% (95% CI: 2.09%-2.19%) during 2010-2014 (p < 0.001). Conclusion: Gout prevalence in adult men in Japan has increased significantly in recent years. The prevalence of asymptomatic hyperuricemia under ULT has also increased significantly and was higher than that of gout.

Corrigendum: direct adjustment for confounding by smoking reduces radiation-related cancer risk estimates of mortality among male nuclear workers in Japan, 1999-2010.

We found some trivial errors which might confuse reader. The errors can be identified as the following two types. (1) The one is that misuse of "ERR" and "ERR/Sv". We denoted "Table 4 shows ERRs/Sv and 90% CIs ..." in line 7 of page 366. While we denoted "ERR and 90% CI for all cancers, excluding leukaemia, by dose category ..." in title of Table 4. The values described in Table 4 were ERR by dose category and not ERR/Sv. In addition, the explanation about the model that derived ERR by dose category is better to be added. Therefore, the description mentioned above should be changed as follows. (Misprinted) Table 4 shows ERRs/Sv and 90% CIs for all cancers excluding leukaemia by dose category. (Corrected) Table 4 shows ERRs which were defined as follow equation and 90% CIs for all cancers excluding leukaemia by dose category. λ=λ0 (a,c,y,r,s)exp(α1z1+α2z2+α3z3) (1+ßi di) where di is the dose category, and ßi is the ERR by dose category. The lowest dose category was set as reference. (2) The other were errors in surface caput of several tables. We described "ERR without adjustment for smoking" and "ERR with adjustment for smoking" in Table 4. These are correct description. However, "ERR with adjustment for smoking" was described as "For smoking" in Table 2. In addition, "Without adjustment" and "With adjustment" denoted in the surface caput of Table 5, 6, 7 should be denoted as "Without adjustment for smoking" and "With adjustment for smoking". The author wishes to apologies for the errors. .

Direct adjustment for confounding by smoking reduces radiation-related cancer risk estimates of mortality among male nuclear workers in Japan, 1999-2010.

A causal relationship between protracted exposure to low-dose rate radiation and health effects remains unclear despite extensive international studies of nuclear workers. One potential reason is that radiation epidemiological studies that adjust for tobacco smoking, which heavily influences mortality, have been limited. In the present study, we examined radiation-related cancer risk by directly assessing the possible confounding effect of smoking, using data from two questionnaire surveys performed among Japanese nuclear workers in 1997 and 2003. Mortality follow-up was carried out for 71 733 male respondents for an average of 8.2 years during the observation period of 1999-2010. The mean cumulative dose was 25.5 mSv at the end of the follow-up period. Estimates of excess relative risk per Sv (ERRs/Sv) were obtained by Poisson regression. By adjusting for smoking directly on the basis of a linear dose-response model, we quantified the confounding effects of smoking on radiation risks. Statistically significant ERRs/Sv were found for all causes, all diseases, all non-cancer diseases, and liver cancer: 0.97 (90% confidence interval: 0.23, 1.78), 1.32 (0.40, 2.34), 1.87 (0.47, 3.49), and 4.78 (0.09, 11.68), respectively, without adjustment for smoking. However, the ERRs/Sv were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for smoking: 0.45 (-0.22, 1.19), 0.77 (-0.08, 1.72), 1.28 (-0.03, 2.79), and 3.89 (-0.46, 10.34), respectively. The ERRs/Sv for all cancers excluding leukaemia and lung cancer were not significant before adjustment for smoking, but declined after adjustment for smoking. The present study demonstrates that in this cohort of workers, smoking heavily distorts radiation risk estimates of mortality. The possibility of confounding by smoking depends on how strongly smoking is correlated with radiation exposure. If a correlation between smoking and radiation dose is suggested, smoking is an important confounder when assessing the radiation and health risks.

Mortality Analysis of the Life Span Study (LSS) Cohort Taking into Account Multiple Causes of Death Indicated in Death Certificates.

Mortality analyses have been performed using underlying causes of death as reported on death certificates; these are uniquely determined for a deceased person according to the World Health Organization coding system. Comorbidities, the disease conditions other than the underlying cause of death from death certificates recording multiple causes of death, have rarely been explored in Life Span Study subjects. The purpose of this study was to clarify associations between atomic bomb radiation exposure and mortality from combinations of the underlying cause of death and comorbidities. The focused follow-up period was 1977-2003, prior to which death certificate accuracy was unreliable. The study cohort was comprised of 10,017 people for whom the category "all circulatory disease" was listed as the underlying cause of death, of which heart disease (rheumatic, hypertensive and ischemic heart disease) and stroke were major subtypes. Comorbidities considered were pneumonia, renal disease, diabetes mellitus, cancer and the major circulatory disease subtypes listed above. Poisson regression models were used for analyses. Excess relative risks (ERRs) for mortality at 1 Gy were significantly increased when cancer was comorbid with all circulatory disease, heart disease, ischemic heart disease or stroke, ranging from 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 1.41; N = 177] for all circulatory diseases to 1.60 (CI: 0.07, 4.86; N = 42) for ischemic heart disease. Among the other comorbidities, only diabetes comorbid with heart disease had a significant radiation dose response (ERR at 1 Gy of 0.62, CI: 0.10, 1.46; N = 128). It remains uncertain if the high ERRs with comorbid cancers were anomalous due to the small number of cases or some dissimilarity in statistical methodologies, or if this might suggest some pathogenetic basis for increased fatality. For this reason, further investigation is required.

Rationale and design of Diabetes Prevention with active Vitamin D (DPVD): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

INTRODUCTION: Recent research suggests that vitamin D deficiency may cause both bone diseases and a range of non-skeletal diseases. However, most of these data come from observational studies, and clinical trial data on the effects of vitamin D supplementation on individuals with pre-diabetes are scarce and inconsistent. The aim of the Diabetes Prevention with active Vitamin D (DPVD) study is to assess the effect of eldecalcitol, active vitamin D analogue, on the incidence of type 2 diabetes among individuals with pre-diabetes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: DPVD is an ongoing, prospective, multicentre, randomised, double-blind and placebo-controlled outcome study in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. Participants, men and women aged ≥30 years, will be randomised to receive eldecalcitol or placebo. They will also be given a brief (5-10 min long) talk about appropriate calorie intake from diet and exercise at each 12-week visit. The primary end point is the cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes. Secondary endpoint is the number of participants who achieve normoglycaemia at 48, 96 and 144 weeks. Follow-up is estimated to span 144 weeks. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: All protocols and an informed consent form comply with the Ethics Guideline for Clinical Research (Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare). The study protocol has been approved by the Institutional Review Board at Kokura Medical Association and University of Occupational and Environmental Health. The study will be implemented in line with the CONSORT statement. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: UMIN000010758; Pre-results.

Skin cancer incidence among atomic bomb survivors from 1958 to 1996.

The radiation risk of skin cancer by histological types has been evaluated in the atomic bomb survivors. We examined 80,158 of the 120,321 cohort members who had their radiation dose estimated by the latest dosimetry system (DS02). Potential skin tumors diagnosed from 1958 to 1996 were reviewed by a panel of pathologists, and radiation risk of the first primary skin cancer was analyzed by histological types using a Poisson regression model. A significant excess relative risk (ERR) of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) (n = 123) was estimated at 1 Gy (0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26, 1.6) for those age 30 at exposure and age 70 at observation based on a linear-threshold model with a threshold dose of 0.63 Gy (95% CI: 0.32, 0.89) and a slope of 2.0 (95% CI: 0.69, 4.3). The estimated risks were 15, 5.7, 1.3 and 0.9 for age at exposure of 0-9, 10-19, 20-39, over 40 years, respectively, and the risk increased 11% with each one-year decrease in age at exposure. The ERR for squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) in situ (n = 64) using a linear model was estimated as 0.71 (95% CI: 0.063, 1.9). However, there were no significant dose responses for malignant melanoma (n = 10), SCC (n = 114), Paget disease (n = 10) or other skin cancers (n = 15). The significant linear radiation risk for BCC with a threshold at 0.63 Gy suggested that the basal cells of the epidermis had a threshold sensitivity to ionizing radiation, especially for young persons at the time of exposure.

Radiation exposure and the risk of mortality from noncancer respiratory diseases in the life span study, 1950-2005.

An apparent association between radiation exposure and noncancer respiratory diseases (NCRD) in the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors has been reported, but the biological validity of that observation is uncertain. This study investigated the possibility of radiation causation of noncancer respiratory diseases in detail by examining subtypes of noncancer respiratory diseases, temporal associations, and the potential for misdiagnosis and other confounding factors. A total of 5,515 NCRD diagnoses listed as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate were observed among the 86,611 LSS subjects with estimated weighted absorbed lung doses. Radiation dose-response analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazard regression for pneumonia/influenza, other acute respiratory infections, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. The linear excess relative risks (ERR) per gray (Gy) were 0.17 (95% CI 0.08, 0.27) for all NCRD and 0.20 (CI 0.09, 0.34) for pneumonia/influenza, which accounted for 63% of noncancer respiratory disease deaths. Adjustments for lifestyle and sociodemographic variations had almost no impact on the risk estimates. However, adjustments for indications of cancer and/or cardiovascular disease decreased the risk estimates, with ERR for total noncancer respiratory diseases declined by 35% from 0.17 to 0.11. Although it was impossible to fully adjust for the misdiagnosis of other diseases as noncancer respiratory diseases deaths in this study because of limitations of available data, nevertheless, the associations were reduced or eliminated by the adjustment that could be made. This helps demonstrates that the association between noncancer respiratory diseases and radiation exposure in previous reports could be in part be attributed to coincident cancer and/or cardiovascular diseases.

Carotid intima-media thickness and plaque in apparently healthy Japanese individuals with an estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD death according to the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS) guidelines 2012: the Shiga Epidemiological Study of Subclinical Atherosclerosis (SESSA).

AIM: To examine whether subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the categories in the 2012 atherosclerosis prevention guidelines proposed by the Japan Atherosclerosis Society (JAS guidelines 2012), which adopted the estimated 10-year absolute risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) death in the NIPPON DATA80 Risk Assessment Chart. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2008, 868 Japanese men 40 to 74 years of age without a history of cardiovascular disease were randomly selected from Kusatsu City, Japan. The intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque number from the common to internal carotid arteries were investigated using ultrasonography. The absolute risk of CAD death was estimated based on the individual risk factor data, and the mean IMT and plaque number in Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ and Ⅲ of the guidelines were examined. RESULTS: The estimated 10-year absolute risk of CAD was directly related to the IMT (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for a 10-year absolute risk of ≥ 2.0% and ≥ 5.0%: 0.88 ± 0.18 and 0.95 ± 0.19, respectively) and the plaque number. These results are compatible with the categories described by the guidelines (mean IMT (mean ± SD) (mm) for Categories Ⅰ, Ⅱ, and Ⅲ: 0.70 ± 0.11, 0.81 ± 0.16 and 0.88 ± 0.18, respectively; mean plaque number: 0.9, 2.1 and 3, respectively). These findings were similar for Category Ⅲ participants with or without DM and CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical atherosclerosis of the carotid arteries is concordant with the 10-year absolute risk of CAD and the categories in the JAS guidelines 2012.

Ionizing radiation exposure and the development of soft-tissue sarcomas in atomic-bomb survivors.

BACKGROUND: Very high levels of ionizing radiation exposure have been associated with the development of soft-tissue sarcoma. The effects of lower levels of ionizing radiation on sarcoma development are unknown. This study addressed the role of low to moderately high levels of ionizing radiation exposure in the development of soft-tissue sarcoma. METHODS: Based on the Life Span Study cohort of Japanese atomic-bomb survivors, 80,180 individuals were prospectively assessed for the development of primary soft-tissue sarcoma. Colon dose in gray (Gy), the excess relative risk, and the excess absolute rate per Gy absorbed ionizing radiation dose were assessed. Subject demographic, age-specific, and survival parameters were evaluated. RESULTS: One hundred and four soft-tissue sarcomas were identified (mean colon dose = 0.18 Gy), associated with a 39% five-year survival rate. Mean ages at the time of the bombings and sarcoma diagnosis were 26.8 and 63.6 years, respectively. A linear dose-response model with an excess relative risk of 1.01 per Gy (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13 to 2.46; p = 0.019) and an excess absolute risk per Gy of 4.3 per 100,000 persons per year (95% CI: 1.1 to 8.9; p = 0.001) were noted in the development of soft-tissue sarcoma. CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the largest and longest studies (fifty-six years from the time of exposure to the time of follow-up) to assess ionizing radiation effects on the development of soft-tissue sarcoma. This is the first study to suggest that lower levels of ionizing radiation may be associated with the development of soft-tissue sarcoma, with exposure of 1 Gy doubling the risk of soft-tissue sarcoma development (linear dose-response). The five-year survival rate of patients with soft-tissue sarcoma in this population was much lower than that reported elsewhere.

Reaction time as a predictor of mortality: the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health Study.

OBJECTIVE: We investigated the association between reaction time (RT) and mortality in middle-aged and older atomic bomb survivors and their unexposed controls over a period of 30 years. METHODS: During 1970-72, 4912 participants of the Adult Health Study cohort in Hiroshima, Japan, underwent biologic tests including RT. Mortality was followed to the end of 2003. RESULTS: In a multivariate-adjusted model, the hazard ratio (HR) for 1-standard deviation increments of RT was 1.08 (95% confidence interval [CI]=1.03-1.13) for men, 1.22 (95% CI=1.16-1.28) for women, and 1.13 (95% CI=1.09-1.16) for all. When the analysis was performed by sex, age, and follow-up period, a consistent increase of mortality with increments of RT was observed. The HR for mortality for the highest RT quintile was higher than that of the lowest quintile in all sex-age groups. A significant positive association between mortality risk and RT was observed even after 20 years of follow-up (p=.03 in men, p<.001 in women). RT and radiation dose were risk factors for mortality independent of conventional risk factors such as smoking, high blood pressure, and diabetes mellitus. Interaction between RT and radiation dose had no significant effect on mortality in men. Although increased radiation dose reduced the HR for mortality per RT increment in women, RT and radiation dose were still significant predictors of mortality. CONCLUSIONS: RT is a consistently strong predictor of mortality. Although mortality risk increased with radiation dose, radiation did not accelerate the relationship between RT and mortality.

Relationship between anthropometric factors, radiation exposure, and colon cancer incidence in the Life Span Study cohort of atomic bomb survivors.

PURPOSE: We examined colon cancer risk in atomic bomb survivors to investigate whether excess body weight after the bombings alters sensitivity to radiation effects. METHODS: Of the 56,064 Japanese atomic bomb survivors with follow-up through 2002 with self-reported anthropometric data obtained from periodic mail surveys, 1,142 were diagnosed with colon cancer. We evaluated the influence of body mass index (BMI) and height on radiation-associated colon cancer risk using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We observed a similar linear dose-response relationship for the 56,064 subjects included in our analysis and the entire cohort of Japanese atomic bomb survivors [excess relative risk (ERR) per Gray (Gy) = 0.53, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.25-0.86]. Elevation in earliest reported BMI, BMI reported closest to colon cancer diagnosis, and time-varying BMI were associated with an elevated risk of colon cancer [relative risk (RR) per 5 kg/m(2) increase in BMI = 1.14, 95 % CI 1.03-1.26; RR = 1.16, 95 % CI 1.05-1.27; and RR = 1.15, 95 % CI 1.04-1.27, respectively]. Height was not significantly related to colon cancer risk. Inclusion of anthropometric variables in models had little impact on radiation risk estimates, and there was no evidence that sensitivity to the effect of radiation on colon cancer risk depended on BMI. CONCLUSIONS: Radiation exposure and BMI are both risk factors for colon cancer. BMI at various times after exposure to the atomic bombings does not significantly influence the relationship between radiation dose and colon cancer risk, suggesting that BMI and radiation impact colon cancer risk independently of each other.

Prognostic values of clockwise and counterclockwise rotation for cardiovascular mortality in Japanese subjects: a 24-year follow-up of the National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Noncommunicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 (NIPPON DATA80).

BACKGROUND: Although clockwise rotation and counterclockwise rotation are distinct findings of the ECG, their prognostic significance is rarely studied. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied prognostic values of clockwise and counterclockwise rotation on total, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and subtype mortality using the National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Noncommunicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 (NIPPON DATA80) database with a 24-year follow-up. At baseline in 1980, data were collected on study participants aged ≥30 years from randomly selected areas in Japan. We followed 9067 participants (44% men; mean age, 51 years). During the 24-year follow-up, mortality was as follows: 2581 total, 887 CVD, 179 coronary heart disease, 173 heart failure, and 411 stroke. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) with the use of the Cox model including biochemical and other ECG variables revealed that clockwise rotation was significantly positively associated with heart failure in men and women combined (HR=1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-2.83; P=0.013), CVD in men and in men and women combined (HR=1.49; 95% CI, 1.12-1.98; P=0.007 in men; HR=1.28; 95% CI, 1.02-1.59; P=0.030 in combined), and total mortality in men and in men and women combined (HR=1.19; 95% CI, 1.00-1.49; P=0.0496 in men; HR=1.15; 95% CI, 1.00-1.32; P=0.045 in combined). Counterclockwise rotation was significantly inversely associated stroke in men and women combined (HR=0.77; 95% CI, 0.62-0.96; P=0.017), CVD in men and in men and women combined (HR=0.74; 95% CI, 0.59-0.94; P=0.011 in men; HR=0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-0.94; P=0.006 in combined), and total mortality in women (HR=0.87; 95% CI, 0.77-0.98; P=0.023). CONCLUSIONS: We found a significant positive association of clockwise rotation and a significant inverse association of counterclockwise rotation with CVD mortality in men and in men and women combined, independent of confounding factors including other ECG changes.

Radiation dose associated with renal failure mortality: a potential pathway to partially explain increased cardiovascular disease mortality observed after whole-body irradiation.

Whole-body and thoracic ionizing radiation exposure are associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. In atomic bomb survivors, radiation dose is also associated with increased hypertension incidence, suggesting that radiation dose may be associated with chronic renal failure (CRF), thus explaining part of the mechanism for increased CVD. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to evaluate the association of radiation dose with various definitions of chronic kidney disease (CKD) mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors. A secondary analysis was performed using a subsample for whom self-reported information on hypertension and diabetes, the two biggest risk factors for CRF, had been collected. We found a significant association between radiation dose and only our broadest definition of CRF among the full cohort. A quadratic dose excess relative risk model [ERR/Gy(2) = 0.091 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.198)] fit minimally better than a linear model. Within the subsample, association was also observed only with the broadest CRF definition [ERR/Gy(2) = 0.15 (95% CI: 0.02, 0.32)]. Adjustment for hypertension and diabetes improved model fit but did not substantially change the ERR/Gy(2) estimate, which was 0.17 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.35). We found a significant quadratic dose relationship between radiation dose and possible chronic renal disease mortality that is similar in shape to that observed between radiation and incidence of hypertension in this population. Our results suggest that renal dysfunction could be part of the mechanism causing increased CVD risk after whole-body irradiation, a hypothesis that deserves further study.

Height loss starting in middle age predicts increased mortality in the elderly.

The purpose of this study was to determine the mortality risk among Japanese men and women with height loss starting in middle age, taking into account lifestyle and physical factors. A total of 2498 subjects (755 men and 1743 women) aged 47 to 91 years old underwent physical examinations during the period 1994 to 1995. Those individuals were followed for mortality status through 2003. Mortality risk was estimated using an age-stratified Cox proportional hazards model. In addition to sex, adjustment factors such as radiation dose, lifestyle, and physical factors measured at the baseline--including smoking status, alcohol intake, total cholesterol, blood pressure, and diagnosed diseases--were used for analysis of total mortality and mortality from each cause of death. There were a total of 302 all-cause deaths, 46 coronary heart disease and stroke deaths, 58 respiratory deaths including 45 pneumonia deaths, and 132 cancer deaths during the follow-up period. Participants were followed for 20,787 person-years after baseline. Prior history of vertebral deformity and hip fracture were not associated with mortality risk. However, more than 2 cm of height loss starting in middle age showed a significant association with all-cause mortality among the study participants (HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.31 to 2.38, p = 0.0002), after adjustment was made for sex, attained age, atomic-bomb radiation exposure, and lifestyle and physical factors. Such height loss also was significantly associated with death due to coronary heart disease or stroke (HR = 3.35, 95% CI 1.63 to 6.86, p = 0.0010), as well as respiratory-disease death (HR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.25 to 5.22, p = 0.0130), but not cancer death. Continuous HL also was associated with all-cause mortality and CHD- or stroke-caused mortality. Association between height loss and mortality was still significant, even after excluding persons with vertebral deformity. Height loss of more than 2 cm starting in middle age was an independent risk factor for cardiovascular and respiratory-disease mortality among the elderly, even after adjusting for potential risk factors.

Studies of the mortality of atomic bomb survivors, Report 14, 1950-2003: an overview of cancer and noncancer diseases.

This is the 14th report in a series of periodic general reports on mortality in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors followed by the Radiation Effects Research Foundation to investigate the late health effects of the radiation from the atomic bombs. During the period 1950-2003, 58% of the 86,611 LSS cohort members with DS02 dose estimates have died. The 6 years of additional follow-up since the previous report provide substantially more information at longer periods after radiation exposure (17% more cancer deaths), especially among those under age 10 at exposure (58% more deaths). Poisson regression methods were used to investigate the magnitude of the radiation-associated risks, the shape of the dose response, and effect modification by gender, age at exposure, and attained age. The risk of all causes of death was positively associated with radiation dose. Importantly, for solid cancers the additive radiation risk (i.e., excess cancer cases per 10(4) person-years per Gy) continues to increase throughout life with a linear dose-response relationship. The sex-averaged excess relative risk per Gy was 0.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.32, 0.53] for all solid cancer at age 70 years after exposure at age 30 based on a linear model. The risk increased by about 29% per decade decrease in age at exposure (95% CI: 17%, 41%). The estimated lowest dose range with a significant ERR for all solid cancer was 0 to 0.20 Gy, and a formal dose-threshold analysis indicated no threshold; i.e., zero dose was the best estimate of the threshold. The risk of cancer mortality increased significantly for most major sites, including stomach, lung, liver, colon, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, bladder and ovary, whereas rectum, pancreas, uterus, prostate and kidney parenchyma did not have significantly increased risks. An increased risk of non-neoplastic diseases including the circulatory, respiratory and digestive systems was observed, but whether these are causal relationships requires further investigation. There was no evidence of a radiation effect for infectious or external causes of death.

Exposure to ionizing radiation and development of bone sarcoma: new insights based on atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

BACKGROUND: Radiation-induced bone sarcoma has been associated with high doses of ionizing radiation from therapeutic or occupation-related exposures. However, the development of bone sarcoma following exposure to lower doses of ionizing radiation remains speculative. METHODS: A cohort analysis based on the Life Span Study (n = 120,321) was performed to assess the development of bone sarcoma in atomic-bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki followed from 1958 to 2001. The excess relative risk per gray of ionizing radiation absorbed by the bone marrow was estimated. Additional subject demographic, survival, and clinical factors were evaluated. RESULTS: Nineteen cases of bone sarcoma (in eleven males and eight females) were identified among the 80,181 subjects who met the inclusion criteria, corresponding to an incidence of 0.9 per 100,000 person-years. The mean ages at the time of the bombing and at diagnosis were 32.4 and 61.6 years, respectively. The mean bone marrow dose was 0.43 Gy. Osteosarcoma was the most commonly identified bone sarcoma. The most common bone sarcoma site was the pelvis. The overall unadjusted five-year survival rate was 25%. A dose threshold was found at 0.85 Gy (95% confidence interval, 0.12 to 1.85 Gy), with a linear dose-response association above this threshold. The linear slope equaled an excess relative risk of 7.5 per Gy (95% confidence interval, 1.34 to 23.14 per Gy) in excess of 0.85 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of what we believe is one of the longest and largest prospective studies assessing the development of bone sarcoma in individuals exposed to ionizing radiation, it appears that the development of radiation-induced bone sarcoma may be associated with exposure to much lower doses of ionizing radiation than have previously been reported. Such new insights may potentially improve bone sarcoma prevention measures and broaden our understanding of the role of ionizing radiation from various sources on the development of malignant tumors. This study stresses the need to become increasingly aware of the various health risks that may be attributable to even low levels of ionizing radiation exposure. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic Level I. See Instructions to Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.